
Research
Working Papers
Big Push Policies and Network Externalities: Insights from Quebec's EV Fast-Charging Market,
Cordeau, Hugo. 2025
Decarbonizing transportation is a required milestone in our decarbonization efforts. However, EV adoption remains low, with insufficient charging availability being a major barrier. This issue stems from a misalignment: private firms deploying charging networks do not internalize the externalities they generate on EV adoption. To address this, Quebec implemented a "Big Push" policy in the early 2010s, establishing a state-owned charging network to ensure province-wide connectivity, thereby driving EV demand. First, by leveraging the network's concentric expansion, I implement a staggered difference-in-differences approach and find a statistically significant two-fold increase in EV adoption for newly connected cities. Given the durable nature of vehicles, I extend the analysis using a dynamic treatment effect framework, revealing a monotonic increase in treatment effects over time. I then develop a structural model to analyze the impact of charging station availability on EV adoption. The model employs a two-stage demand: in the first stage, consumers select EV models, and in the second, they derive utility from charging. I estimate the first stage using detailed city-level EV matriculation data and the second stage using high-quality private charging data at the consumer ID and ZIP code level. I then conduct various counterfactual analyses to provide policymakers with insights into the most cost-effective strategies for reducing GHG emissions. Preliminary results suggest that the "Big Push" policy has created a positive feedback loop in the two-sided EV market, proving to be more efficient than flat Pigouvian subsidies. This efficiency arises from charging firms' preference for profit, which skews them into denser areas at the cost of covering unprofitable areas.
If You Build It, Who Will Come? Evidence from Montreal’s Bike Lane Expansion,
Cordeau, Hugo. 2023
Lane and parking reductions have become common practices in major American cities, notably for the installation of bike lanes. Proponents argue that these measures increase safety and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, evidence supporting this argument remains elusive, especially considering the sprawling nature of American cities. I explore this question by leveraging Montreal’s natural experiment, which aims for 15% of all trips to be made by bicycle by 2030, supported by a half-billion-dollar budget. Specifically, the city is rolling out the Express Biking Network (EBN) to connect each neighborhood through protected bike lanes. Utilizing the first deployed axes and the city-owned bike sharing data, I estimate that the added bike lanes have increased bike ridership by 30% within 300 meters of the new lanes, decaying to 20% in the 500-meter buffer; the 10% increase in speed and distance is believed to be a driving factor. Contrary to popular belief, this increase does not come at the expense of nearby bike lanes, which instead experience a positive spillover effect, underlying that these are additional bike riders. However, if the objective is to offer a sustainable transit mode, it is crucial to determine whether these additional bikers are shifting from the public transit network. To this end, I find weak to no evidence that the additional bikers stem from the subway network. Our triple difference-in-difference analysis —using seasonal variations to neutralize work-from-home effects suggests an insignificant 1% decrease in subway ridership. Finally, while I cannot establish causality, I observe a 15% reduction in car usage, which could explain the increase in bikers. In summary, my research underlines that, despite having a harsh climate and challenging terrain, as is the case in Montreal, protected bike lanes can significantly boost bicycle usage with a negligible impact on the public transit network.
Media Coverage: La Presse, Podcast (Google LLMs)
The Impact of Violent Crimes on Commuting: Evidence from Toronto, with William Arbour. 2025
TBD
Publication
The Economic Effects of Long-Term Climate Change: Evidence from the Little Ice Age: Replication, (with Nikolai Cook, Tongzhe Li, Taylor Wright), Accepted, Economic Inquiry, 2025
Waldinger (2022) finds a positive relationship between temperature and city size during the climate change of 1600-1850. We show the main result differs by city size. Cities with less than 1000 inhabitants (which make up 23.5% of observations and are 49.6% of cities at some point) exhibit a strong and positive relationship between temperature and city size, whereas cities with always more than 1000 inhabitants exhibit a negative relationship. Further examination of the underlying city size data, which bins populations into coarse thousand-wide population intervals, finds the original analysis to be robust to a number of reasonable alternative researcher choices.